BEIJING, October 14, 2026 (DAILYNWZ) — China’s exports jumped 36.3% in September, driving its trade surplus higher and putting it on course to exceed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, as strong global demand for technology and green products offset weak domestic demand and heightened the risk of new trade restrictions.
Exports rose at their fastest pace since February, when they grew 39.6%, according to customs data released on Wednesday. The increase exceeded both August’s 25% growth and economists’ expectations of 25.5%.
Imports also accelerated, rising 31% year on year, compared with 28.2% in August and forecasts for a 24.5% increase. The figures point to continued strength in China’s manufacturing trade, even as its domestic recovery remains uneven.
Wang Jun, a vice minister at China’s customs administration, warned that geopolitical conflicts and other external uncertainties could affect trade. However, he said there were solid foundations and support for continued growth in both exports and imports in the fourth quarter.
Analysts expect technology products to remain a key driver. “Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year’s key growth engine humming,” said Lynn Song, ING’s chief Greater China economist.
“Surplus Nears a New Milestone”
China’s trade surplus reached $938.11 billion in the first nine months of the year, bringing it closer to the $1 trillion threshold. The country’s surplus first crossed that mark in November last year and reached a record $1.189 trillion for the full year.
September’s surplus widened to $133.53 billion. China recorded a $34.01 billion surplus with the United States, its largest in 20 months, and a $34.8 billion surplus with the European Union.
The widening gap could intensify pressure from trading partners that accuse Beijing of relying excessively on exports and maintaining policies that give domestic manufacturers an unfair advantage.
A deal announced earlier this month to limit Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports to the EU could eventually weigh on automotive shipments. But exporters may accelerate deliveries before the measures are set out in December.
“The widening trade surplus with Europe could spur broader EU restrictions beyond last week’s narrow deal, though we expect the resulting economic fallout for China to be small,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, a China economist at Capital Economics.
A September summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Washington extended their tariff truce and secured an agreement to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods from each country.
“Technology Drives Shipments”
Semiconductors and cars remain important sources of export growth. Semiconductor exports rose 108.1% in value during the first nine months compared with the same period last year, while automobile exports increased by more than 50% in both value and volume.
Analysts expect demand for Chinese technology products to remain firm as investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues globally.
China’s yuan held steady against the dollar on Wednesday following the export data, while domestic stocks fell. Separate figures showed factory-gate prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years in September, although consumer inflation edged up less than expected, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery.
The Canton Fair, China’s largest trade exhibition, opens on Thursday, giving manufacturers another opportunity to showcase products to overseas buyers.
Commodity imports were mixed. Crude oil imports fell 21.5% by volume from a year earlier in September, while soybean imports declined 7.7%.
“Trade Risks Remain”
Strong exports could allow policymakers to rely on moderate support measures to meet China’s annual economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%. But a significant export slowdown would leave the government under greater pressure to stimulate domestic demand and address the prolonged property downturn.
Washington and Brussels continue to criticize China’s industrial and currency policies, raising the prospect of further restrictions on Chinese goods. China’s central bank pushed back last week, rejecting allegations that it deliberately keeps the yuan weak to gain a trade advantage and saying it has never pursued competitive currency depreciation.
For now, the export surge is helping sustain growth. Whether it can continue without provoking a stronger response from major trading partners remains a key risk for the world’s second-largest economy.